August 07, 2018

vbw index remains stable and high

The vbw Bavarian business Index is currently at 145 points, unchanged from its level in Fall 2017. There are no noticeable changes in the sub-indices. The current status index went up 3 points to 161. Companies are very satisfied with the current business climate. The growth forecast index remained unchanged at 137 points while the mood indicator has retreated somewhat. The current employment index fell 2 points to 143. Unemployment levels are currently so low that any further reduction in the unemployment level will be slower than it was last year. The employment forecast index also fell slightly by 3 points to 137. However, vacancy levels remain high and companies will continue to hire. Stable, but slowing upswing: we are currently witnessing a slight slowdown in the economy, however, there are no serious signs of a downturn. The vbw expects a growth of 2.5% in Bavaria for 2018, down from 3% in 2017. This slowdown in the business trend can be attributed to a significant rise in economic uncertainty in Europe and around the globe. In particular, the wave of protectionism from the United States is a threat to economic growth.


Volker Leinweber

Volkswirtschaftliche Grundsatzfragen

Volker Leinweber