August 07, 2018

vbw Index of Business Activity in Bavaria – fall 2017

Effective economic indicator

The vbw index of the Bavarian economy comprises a total of 31 weighted indicators, each addressing a different aspect of the economy including: findings from the Bavarian Economic Survey conducted by the German Economic Institute (IW), information taken from the ifo Business Survey and data provided by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany as well as the German Federal Employment Agency. That makes the vbw index an effective indicator of economic trends in Bavaria. The vbw index together with its four subindices applies a range of zero to 200 with 100 representing the long-term average.

All subindices on the rise

The growth trend index posted a considerable 12-point increase to a current 158. Production activity and revenue have increased significantly and companies are describing the business climate as excellent. The growth forecast index rose by 3 points to a current 137, a development that can be attributed to higher order volumes, improved capacity utilisation and an optimistic outlook.

The employment trend index posted an increase of 9 points to a current 145 due to ongoing employment growth accompanied by a drop in unemployment. The employment forecast index also posted a 1-point increase to a current 140 points. Businesses continue to hire with a large number of positions still waiting to be filled.


Volker Leinweber

Volkswirtschaftliche Grundsatzfragen

Volker Leinweber