17. March 2016

Prognos study Economy 2040 - Part 4: Forecast for the USA

After forty years of decline, US industry has succeeded in bringing about a turnaround. Deindustrialization has been halted and the industry has been revitalized, mainly due to favorable energy prices.

The future of the US economy

Prognos expects an average economic growth of 2.2 percent per year for the USA by 2040 with an increase in growth dynamic over the time period. In comparison, Prognos predicts an average economic growth per year for Germany of only 1.3 percent.

The favorable growth rate is mainly due to the demographic developments predicted for the USA. Unlike other European industrialized countries, the US-population is set to rise. Prognos predicts that by 2040 there will be 390 million people in the USA, an increase of 25 percent.

The population growth will lead to a considerable increase in labor force potential. The number of people of working age will rise from a current 209 million to 238 million by 2040. 175 million people are predicted to be gainfully employed in 2040.

While the US-population will also age, the dependency ratio (the number of people at retirement age per 100 people at working age) will still be much lower than that of Germany by 2040: the ratio will rise from a current 21 to 34 points in the US. The ratio in Germany is predicted to rise to 54.

“Economy 2040” - the study

The study “Economy 2040” is the only worldwide report in elaborating long-term future forecasts for 42 countries, representing 90 percent of the world’s economic performance. The study is conducted by Prognos AG. As a leading think tank for future-oriented studies, Prognos AG advises policymakers and businesses in Germany and Europe.


Dagmar Cassan

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Dagmar Cassan