February 17, 2016

Economic Outlook - February 2016

Germany - Leading indicators on a negative trend

The leading indicators for Germany have started the year on a negative trend. The ifo Business Climate Index (ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) decreased mainly due to worsened business expectations. The assessment of the business situation also went down. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-Konjunkturindex) showed a similar development. The assessment of both the business situation and the business expectations declined. The Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased by two points in January after stagnating in the previous month. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) lost ground again. The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) lost momentum but was able to stay above the growth threshold with 52.1 points. There is still no data available on the mileage of trucks (according to the toll statistics).

Eurozone - Leading indicators decline

All of the leading indicators for the Eurozone declined in January. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-Konjunkturindex), the Economic Sentiment Indicator, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) and the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the Industry in the Euro area (Einkaufsmanagerindex) all went down. The latter is currently on 52.3 points, remaining well above the growth threshold. The ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone also dropped. While the assessment of the business situation improved compared to three months ago, business expectations for the upcoming months decreased noticeably.

World economy - Negative development

Almost all of the leading indicators for the world economy developed in a negative trend. Especially the Baltic Dry Index keeps dropping and has currently reached an all-time low. After dropping significantly below its long-time average of 100 points last month, the OECD-leading indicator remained on the same level in January. The German Federal Bank’s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy declined further. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (Einkaufsmanagerindex) for the industry gained 0.1 points. With 50.2 points the index stayed on a minimal growth track. The ifo World Economic Climate Index also dropped. The assessment of both the current economic situation and the business expectations was worse than three months ago.

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Economic Outlook February 2016

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