16. December 2015

Economic Outlook - Leading indicators at a glance

1. Germany - Leading indicators are recovering

Almost all of the leading indicators for Germany are trending slightly upwards again. For both, the ifo Business Climate Index (ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex) and the Sentix Economic Index (sentix-Konjunkturindex), the assessment of the business situation and the business expectations improved. Similarly, the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the German Industry (Einkaufsmanagerindex) improved to 52,9 points, rising well above the growth threshold. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) also recovered moderately from its low level. Solely the Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased slightly. Currently, there is no data available on the mileage of trucks (according to the toll statistics).

2. Eurozone - Differentiated signals

The development of the leading indicators for the Eurozone is quite differentiated. The Sentix Economic Index (sentix-Konjunkturindex) went up slightly, due to both the assessment of the business situation and the business expectations. Similarly, the Purchasing Managers’ Index for the Industry in the Euro area (Einkaufsmanagerindex) improved to 52,3 points, rising above the growth threshold. The Economic Sentiment Indicator stagnated, both for the Eurozone and the entire EU. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW-Konjunkturindikator) once again declined.

The latest data for the ifo Index for the Economic Climate in the Eurozone, which are published quarterly (current figures from August 2015), also dropped. This is attributable to the worsenend assessment of the business situation. Business expectations for the upcoming months on the other hand improved.

3. World Economy - Leading indicators remain weak

The leading indicators for the world economy continue to signal a weak global economy. While the OECD-leading indicator is significantly below its long-time average, it recently rose slightly. The German Federal Bank’s leading indicator (Bundesbank Frühindikator) for the world economy seems to have halted its decline. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (Einkaufsmanagerindex) for the industry, on the other hand, declined further and now sits exactly on the growth threshold. The Baltic Dry Index also dropped, while the Container Throughput-Index (Containerumschlagsindex) recovered slightly.

The latest data for the ifo World Economic Climate Index, which are published quarterly (current figures from August 2015), also dropped. While business expectations largely remained the same, businesses assessed the current economic situation notably more critically.

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Economic Outlook - December 2015

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Dagmar Cassan

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